The picks that Vegas doesn't want you to see

This is a new feature I'm starting on my blog. I don't claim to be an expert at anything, but that won't stop me from trying. Here is where I will pick every NFL game and 2 college football games with the spread. I usually would pick the NFL games straight up, but I figure if I can get some gamblers to start using my picks, maybe I can charge for them. Hopefully by the end of the year we will see if I know anything about either level of football. Onto Week 1.

College Games

Boise State (+3.5) @ Oregon State -- Oregon State is no Georgia. Jared Zabransky will not turn the ball over 6 times in the first half again, as Boise State plays with a chip on its collective shoulder and proves that it still belongs with the big boys.

Notre Dame (+7) @ Michigan -- This is my second straight week picking against my Michigan squad. I'm doing this for a number of reasons. First, Charlie Weis looked like he had Norte Dame running like a Kenyan in a marathon last week. Lloyd Carr always loses the first tough out of conference game. Michigan's defense is horrible this year. I think Notre Dame could win this game outright. All that being said, I still will be rooting for my Wolverines.


NFL Games

Oakland (+7.5) @ New England -- This is a tough one. How good is Oakland going to be this year? Sure, they added Lamont Jordan and Randy Moss (and Jerry Porter is back after a triumphant year of destroying my fantasy football season), but Kerry Collins is still their QB and Norv Turner is still their coach. Therefore, no lead is safe. On the other hand, New England lost both Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennell, as well as Bruschi and Patten. Still, I think the New England home field advantage will allow them to win, but it will be a close game. Vinatieri kicks a game winner.

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (-6) -- Tampa Bay has been crap ever since the departure of Warren Sapp. Their defense used to keep them in games that they should have been blown out in because their offense was terrible. Their offense is still terrible and I don't really trust Cadillac Williams to make it much better. Minnesota lost 50% of its offense in the offseason with Moss leaving, but their defense got much better. I think this will be relatively low-scoring, with Culpepper carrying the Vikes on his back to their first win of the year. Mike Tice is an idiot.

Denver (-4) @ Miami -- Home dog alert! Still, I don't trust Miami at all. Denver will blow them out. Miami's defense is getting old and their offense is nearly non-existent. I mean, Gus Frerotte is their QB.

Tennessee (+7) @ Pittsburgh -- Pittsburgh is without its 2 top backs and their 2nd receiver from last year. Their defense is still good though. But I think the Norm Chow era is going to bring the magic back to the Titans. The problem is that the Titans D is awful. This game will probably be close, as Roethlisberger comes crashing back down to Earth this season. I think the Titans could pull a (male) shocker and win this one outright.

Chicago @ Washington (-6.5) -- This may be the only time I pick the Skins all year, so be forewarned. This is officially the game that nobody wants to watch. Both teams are god-awful on offense, but their defenses will be ok. I think the difference in this one will be a defensive TD from Washington in a low scoring snooze fest.

New Orleans @ Carolina (-6.5) -- All the stuff that has gone on in New Orleans in the past week will serve as another distraction to a team that already has adult ADD. I'd be surprised if they are anywhere near ready to play. Carolina is SI's darkhorse for the Superbowl, but their RBs have to stay healthy for a chance at that.

Seattle (+3) @ Jacksonville -- I really want to dislike Seattle and like Jacksonville this year, but I just can't do it Week One. Shaun Alexander is too good and Byron Leftwich hasn't really proven himself yet. If Fred Taylor is really healthy and Jacksonville can work Matt Jones into the offense, this team could go far, but I just don't trust them yet.

Houston (+4) @ Buffalo -- Speaking of not trusting people...J.P. Losman. I don't like Houston that much, but I think that Losman will cost the Bills their first home game this year due to some rookie mistakes. One the other hand, Houston's offense should be poised for a breakout year or else the David Carr experiment might be drawing to a close.

Cincy (-3) @ Cleveland -- Another home dog. Cincy should roll up on Cleveland this week. I see absolutely nothing to like about Cleveland this year. In fact, I am making this game the Catheter Man Lock of the Week. This game is going to be like figuring out who is the gay on the first episode of the Real World.

Jets @ KC (-3) -- This game might be a shootout, but I think that KC wins at home too mugh for me to pick against them. I love that the Pennington-Coles connection is back in NY, but Curtis Martin is getting too old for this shit. I know I have said that every year for the past 4 years and he proves me wrong every year, but I'm saying that this is the year he finally slows down.

Green Bay (+3) @ Detroit -- This is a tough game to pick. I'm going to have to take GB even though Favre is old, Green is broken, and Walker is overrated. Detroit can draft all the WRs it wants, but it still has to stop someone on defense and I don't think their D is going to stop Favre and company this week.

Dallas (+4.5) @ San Diego -- I think San Diego will win this game, but it will be close. I'm only picking San Diego because its Week 1. If this game were to be played in Week 10, it may be a different story. I think that San Diego was a fluke last year and will come down to reality again this year. Meanwhile, Dallas will make the playoffs even though they have Bledsoe at QB. I just don't think they can pull it together enough to get a tough road win this week.

St. Louis (-4.5) @ San Francisco -- This game should be an absolute blowout. San Francisco is a disaster this year.

Arizona @ Giants (-1.5) -- I really want to pick the Cardinals, but they are the Cardinals. I definitely don't trust Eli Manning to get this win, but Tiki Barber should have a good day against a weak Cards D. Kurt Warner not only has to prove that he can still win games, but also that he can still throw a pass. I have to go with the Giants here because I hate Kurt Warner's wife.

Indy @ Baltimore (+3) -- This is the Catheter Man Upset Special. I think that Baltimore will make it a point to punish Manning to the point where all the fantasy owners that took him high in drafts will start questioning their own manhood. Baltimore's D is going to be sick like the plague this year. If Kyle Boller can do anything on offense, this is going to be a team to be reckoned with. With a D this good, I can't resist taking Baltimore as home dogs.

Philly (-2) @ Hotlanta -- I hate to take Philly in this game, but I just don't think that Atlanta can hang with them yet. Vick is such a bad passer that he ruined Peerless Price's career. Think about that. Philly wins in a close game.